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2Q16 Showing Traffic - TShaffer [4151395]-page-001 (1)

Wonder why your home didn’t sell in a weekend? Here’s a bit of info on the summer real estate market. If you take a look at the graph you’ll see that showing traffic in 2Q 2016 is down quite a bit from the First Quarter of the year. This is no surprise, it’s been the seasonal trend for the last four years. Coming off of a super-heated real estate market this spring, the usual summer “slowdown” feels more dramatic than a political convention. If you’re “lingering” on the market for a whopping two weeks remember that listings don’t always sell in a weekend and not all of them get twenty offers, especially those priced over $350,000. Summer in Denver is not only the real estate selling season, it’s vacation time too! With so much to do in our lovely state, we get up, get out and go more often and our stressed out home buyers need a break. Showings tend to pick up again after the Fourth of July for those looking to make a move and settle in before school starts in late August. That’s the conventional wisdom coming from an unconventional gal.
What I have seen year-after-year is a strong autumn season for real estate sales when the summer buyers have either completed or delayed their purchase and those who want to serve Thanksgiving in a new home come out to play. Same goes for the end of the year when myth tells us it’s a bad time to list a house for sale. My experience has been that winter buyers are fewer, yes, but they are more serious and with our continued lack of inventory many will see the cooler months as a less competitive time to purchase a home. Look for more soon in my next Real Estate Market Update.

Five Essential Things You Need To Know About the 2015 Summer Home Buying Market
This year has kicked off with an array of experts trumpeting the Denver housing market’s strength and resilience. Inventory is at record lows, home prices continue to rise, and foreclosure activity has ebbed to lows not seen since before the 2007 downturn. Spring and summer is the time for selling houses. The months of April, May, June, and July typically account for more than 40 percent of all housing transactions annually, thanks in large part to good weather.
1.Inventory shortages: “The story of the day is on the inventory front,” stresses Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It’s a sentiment echoed by many. The number of available homes in metro Denver has plunged to a record low, thanks to both an abnormally small supply of existing homes for sale and a dearth of new construction not keeping pace with the current demand.
2. Increased Competition: In addition to a dwindling supply of available homes, the number of buyers has surged. And not just traditional buyers – investors have comprised a sizeable chunk of the buyer pool since the downturn and continue to do so. Real estate investors are responsible for about 25 percent of the existing home sales each month. You, the prospective buyer, need to be prepared to move fast if you find a property you’d like to buy. “Buyers need to be patient because many will be outbid by others and might have to bid on multiple homes,” cautions Jed Kolko, chief economist of Trulia. Yes, indeed.
3.Cash is Still King: Given the steep competition, all-cash buyers who can close a deal relatively quickly offer great incentive to sellers. “Cash will still be king if there are multiple bids because from a seller’s view, they want a deal with fewer hiccups, “says Yun. My sellers are surprised to hear that about 30 percent of home sales each month are all-cash purchases.
4.The Good News: Lending Tree chief executive Doug Leboda says in light of the recently unveiled new home-lending standards, lenders are slowly starting to make it slightly easier to get approved. Talk to a couple of lenders, they’ll tell you things have improved over the past few years on the loan front.
5.More Good News: We are seeing a definite correction in the appraisal business. A few years ago appraisers were consistently under-valuing properties, reacting to the over-conservative nature of their shell-shocked underwriter patrons. Today we are seeing the vast majority of appraisals coming in at value, killing far fewer deals than in the past.

Buyers– If you’ve been considering buying a home it’s critical to understand the amazing tax benefits you’ll enjoy. Talk to your CPA to get professional advice, but here’s a brief look at some of the tax benefits of home ownership:
1.The Purchase. The IRS says that in most cases loan discount points and origination fees are tax deductible to the buyer, regardless of who pays them.
2.Mortgage Interest. In general, you can deduct interest charged on a loan used to acquire or improve your principal residence in the year that it is paid. In the early years of a loan, most of your monthly payment is interest, so this can really add up. If you are in a 28 percent federal tax bracket, this can have the effect of lowering your borrowing costs by almost a third.
3.The Sale. If you have owned and occupied your principal residence for at least two of the past five years, you can earn up to $500,000 on the sale of that house and pay no federal income tax whatsoever. That’s assuming you are married – singles get up to $250,000 tax free. You can do this as often as every two years for the rest of your life with no limit on the number of times you do it! The one restriction is that you MUST own and occupy the house as your principal residence.
Sellers– Month after month in this newsletter we have discussed the incredible strength in our housing market. If you’re looking to sell your home this should be very welcome news! The inventory of homes on the market is at an all-time low and prices continue to climb. Call me and I’ll be happy to run a complimentary Comparative Market Analysis on your home to let you know what it might be worth. It’s great information and costs you nothing.
Investors -For years our clients have been buying rental properties in metro Denver to build their long-term wealth. Our record low vacancy rate is a big driver of why rental property has performed so well. First, the lower the vacancy rate the higher the demand for the property. More demand means landlords can be more selective with prospective tenants and can also charge higher rents. Rents have skyrocketed the past few years because the vacancy rates have remained so low. One of the reasons vacancy rates are so low is that many people still cannot qualify for a loan. I don’t expect this to change in the foreseeable future. We’ve had a huge shakeout in the lending industry and lending guidelines are still much stricter than they were a few years ago. Until lending standards ease up more I expect vacancy rates to remain low and keep my investor clients happy. If you’ve ever thought of investing in a condo or house as a rental property call me and I can show you what the numbers look like and what options you might have. Graphic Mortgage The mortgage market continues to remain strong with historically low interest rates. Low rates combined with low home inventory are making this a great time to sell your home and move up to a larger home with the same or lower monthly payment. We have several recent examples of clients selling their current homes and purchasing new ones costing $40,000 – $50,000 more with the exact same monthly payment. Drop me a line and I’ll do a free analysis to see if this might be a good scenario for you to take advantage of!

According to the latest monthly Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Denver-area home-resale prices rose an average 9.1 percent in March from a year earlier. Prices were up 1.4 percent from February, reaching an all-time high. One reason for this, as you may well know, is that our inventory is still incredibly low. Last spring, when the market suddenly turned, we thought this was a fluke but a year out, this seems to be the new norm. Click here to read more in the Denver Business Journal.
What does this mean for you? SELL! I have clients who made a move up during the leaner years and if they were able to hold on to their first property and buy their second, that’s what I’ve encouraged them to do. Rental income and market appreciation made this a wise move for many and now that equity is allowing them to sell at a tidy profit. I’m all for real estate investing and for having a buy and hold strategy in your portfolio, but you need to ask yourself if that is the best use of your money right now. Sometimes an investment has peaked and/or life has changed drastically, providing other options or shall we say ‘rearranging priorities’?
Buyers and sellers are often hesitant to sell for fear of finding a replacement home and though the market is swift like a snowmelt stream, I’ve yet to move one of my clients into a hotel or a shelter. All things are negotiable.
So if you’re looking, or thinking about looking., selling or wondering if selling is your best option, I’d love to sit down and have a conversation with you.

psycihicDenver real estate market is strong and hot like a cup of coffee. After years of waiting for home prices to rise, the Denver real estate market is elevated. So why are buyers and sellers so hesitant to make their move? Let’s blame it on the media. Screaming headlines make money when the sky is falling.
For those of you who are considering buying or selling a property, understanding the big picture is critical. So let’s take a look at where in the real estate cycle the Denver market stands.
You may think this tremendous seller’s market and super tight inventory is something new, something that’s going to come to a head and suddenly erupt overnight. Not true. We are FOUR YEARS PAST THE BOTTOM of our last real estate cycle. This is a logical continuation of a market that is reacting strongly to the overselling we saw between 2007 and 2009, and finally bottomed out in 2009. It’s doing exactly what real estate market cycles do, go up and go down over long periods of time. Remember, over the past 40 years residential real estate appreciation has averaged 6 percent per year and there is no reason to think that is going to change over the next 40 years.
If you think of market cycles in the short-term, spiking and crashing over short periods of time it’s easy to see the sweet meteor of death hurling toward your swing set, but a quick look at the last market cycle shows clearly this is not how real estate works. Real estate cycles over the past 40 years, tend to move in much broader periods, 7-10 years typically. This is why predicting short-term market movements can be very difficult, whereas assuming the market will move in 7-10 cycles is a bit more realistic.
The past four years of the upswing has been largely a sellers’ market. Plummeting inventory, rising prices, nervous buyers often involved in multiple offers, and happy sellers often getting the price they wanted. Buyers can be very nervous, reading news articles, watching TV reports, and figuring the market is teetering on the brink of a crash and being afraid to buy. Rents are skyrocketing, up 8 percent this year alone and renters may confuse the short-term media screeds about this tremendous market with the long-term patterns of market cycles, thinking that the minute they buy a home the market is going to crash.
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I don’t see this. And unlike my clients who may buy or sell a home ever 5-10 years, I work in real estate every day. No one can predict the real estate market with 100% accuracy. I can’t, the Federal Reserve can’t, the banks with all the money can’t, no one can. But, understanding how market cycles work, and recognizing how low our current inventory is, I can say with confidence I do not see any impending weakness in the market over the next couple of years. We are four years into what will probably be a typical 7-10 year cycle of low inventory and rising prices. I can’t tell you what the Dow Jones will finish at next Monday. I can’t tell you if the Rockies will win their fifth game of the season. I can’t tell you what the weather will be on June 15th, but I can say with confidence that real estate tends to move over predictable long-term trends, and this market cycle has a long way to go.

sunriseThere’s a lot of talk in Denver about this “crazy new real estate market”, how “everything’s different than it used to be”, and after six years of heartbreak, I say “thank god”. For those interested in real estate, and for those who might be considering buying or selling a property, understanding the big picture is critical. So here’s where it stands.
Most people think this tremendous seller’s market and that the super low inventory is something new, or that the market’s going to suddenly erupt overnight. Neither is true. Here’s the truth: we are FOUR YEARS PAST THE BOTTOM of our last real estate cycle. Just because the Denver Post is suddenly aware of the real estate market, or Zillow writes screeching articles about the tight market in order to sell ad space don’t be fooled. It’s not new. It is a logical continuation of a market that is reacting strongly to the over-selling we saw between 2007 and 2009 (which finally bottomed out in 2009). It’s doing exactly what real estate market cycles do. They rise and fall over long periods of time, but historically (and I mean over the past 40 years) residential real estate appreciation has averaged 6 percent per year and there is no reason to think that is going to change over the next 40 years.
We tend to think of market cycles in short-terms, spiking and crashing over short periods of time, but a quick look at the last market cycle clearly shows this is not how real estate works. Real estate cycles tend to move in much broader periods, 7-10 years are typical over the past 40 years. This is why predicting short-term market movements can be very difficult, whereas assuming the market will move in 7-10 cycles is a pretty good guess. During these past four years, as we continue the rise from our low, we have seen more of a seller’s market. Plummeting inventory and rising prices drove nervous buyers into multiple offer competitions with happy sellers getting the price they want. In fact, look at Chart Y and you’ll get a great perspective of how strong our market is. You see that the metro Denver 2013 Closed Dollar Volume of all residential sales hit a new high which translates into a record amount of money in the pockets of sellers. Good times for sellers!
Many of my buyers are understandably nervous. Rents are skyrocketing (up 8% this year) but news articles and TV reports claim the market is teetering on the brink of a crash, creating a “Fear of Buying”.
So let me be clear: no one can predict the real estate market with 100% accuracy. I can’t, the Federal Reserve can’t, the banks with all the money can’t (obviously!), no one can. But, understanding how market cycles work, and recognizing how low our current inventory is, I can say with confidence I do not see any impending weakness in the market over the next couple of years. We are four years into what will probably be a typical 7-10 year cycle of low inventory and rising prices. I can’t tell you what the Dow Jones will finish at next Monday. I can’t tell you if the Rockies will win their fifth game of the season. I can’t tell you what the weather will be on April 3rd. But I can say with confidence that real estate tends to move over predictable long-term trends, and this market cycle has a long way to go.

Mid-Century Modern homes are a hot commodity in Denver. Many of them have been remodeled through the decades, often by owners who didn’t realize that what felt outdated would eventually hold the home’s value. This beautiful Mid-Century ranch home has been restored with respect for the flair and detail of 1960 without being kitchy or “retro”. Sleek lines and a serene palette make it feel young again. Situated on a hill with mountain views, this 4 bed/2 bath home is a short walk or roll to Trader Joe’s, Streets of Southglenn, Goodson Rec Center and open space. Come on by.

By now you know the Denver real estate market has bounced back, now let’s look at it by the record-setting numbers.
At the end of 2013 there were:
7,275 homes for sale, (down 6%).
67,550 new listings came on the market for the year, (up 12%).
67,429 homes went under contract (↑20%)
54,024 homes closed (up 17%)
The average days on market was 58 days (↓25%)
Average sold price was $306,910 (↑10%) and closed dollar volume was $16.6 Billion (↑29%). If this sounds like Realtor crack, it is.
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But what does it mean for you?
1. Did ya take a look at that map? Go ahead, click on it. Remember when there was a whole lot of pink and red, lots of yellow…? I do. Now the map is predominantly green and the key shows you how much each neighborhood has improved over last year.
(If you’d like more detail about your own neighborhood, shoot me an email.)

Metrolist expert Gary Bauer observes it this way:

The inventory of active listings, homes available for sale, started a downward trend in 2011, which continued through 2013. In March, 2013, the inventory of active listings was 6,682 homes, an all time low. Active Listings continues to be a primary sustainability concern for the home market.
Home affordability declined due to median home price increases. The month’s supply of inventory started and finished the year at 2 months.
Once again, rental rates continue an upward trend and rental availability continues to decline. With declining distressed properties, foreclosures and REO, at less than 10% of the market and low active listings, new home builders will again be an alternate in the housing market. The largest number of Single Family and Condo properties sold in price range of $100,000 to $499,999 for 2013. The largest number of Single Family homes sold in the price range of $200,000 to $299,999. The largest number of Condo homes sold in the price range of $100,000 to $199,999.
Million dollar plus homes closed/sold were up 16% when comparing 2013 versus 2012. Million dollar plus home closings accounted for $1.5 Billion of the $16.6 Billion total 2013 volume.
Mortgage interest rates started to increase and then fluctuated downward to later increase again during the year, with an overall increase of approximately 1%.

And that’s good news for all of us!

picture-of-a-shifty-used-car-salesman-300x237
Real estate agents are not used car salesmen. We’re not interested in selling you a car [or house] and getting you off the lot before the wheels fall off, au contraire.

Why, if I had a dollar for every time I’ve kept the wheels on a deal….

There are a lot of misconceptions in the real estate business, and then there are the facts. In his book “Buyers are Liars and Sellers Are Too”, author Richard Courtney humorously debunks the irrational thinking that wraps the brains of homeowners and wannabe homeowners tighter than packing tape. From my old wooden desk his views are quite funny, but in the real world of real estate… not so much.
Courtney’s point is not that anyone’s intentionally dishonest, but that truth is mutable. For example, the laundry list of buyer “home must-haves” becomes something different after viewing twenty houses in their target area and price point. And those sellers, armed with Zillow statistics and trusty advice from the FSBO neighbor who sold for 100k less, believe all they have to do is name their price and stick a sign in the yard, knowing they’re probably overpriced. Truth comes later, when it’s still on the market long after the open house balloons have wilted and the flyers are gone from the brochure box. And it stings.
The first time I meet with a potential client, I ask them for permission to tell the truth. Invariably they smile, nod and agree they’d want nothing less, but sometimes as the process unfolds, selective amnesia slips in. Whether the market is up or down, favors buyers or sellers or you like what I have to tell you or not, here’s the truth.
Sellers:
• Your house is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it.
• Well priced homes sell quickly, often over the asking price.
• If you don’t have showings, you can’t sell your house, and if you’re priced too high you won’t have any showings.
• If you’ve had 10-15 showings without an offer, you’re overpriced.
• The colors you chose to match your belongings look too personal once the moving truck pulls out the driveway.
• You may hate beige but buyers love it.
• I cannot make anyone buy your home.
Buyers:
• I cannot make you buy a home you don’t want to buy.
• If I could do either of the last two I’d be writing the book on “Magical Realtorism” from a beach in Bali *waves to cabana boy*.
• You may want everything on your “dream house” list, but you might not get it all. Hopefully you’ll come very close.
• Realtors want you to pre-approve with a lender because it is in your best interest, not theirs (though it doesn’t hurt me either).
• Buying a home without an agent does not mean that the seller will automatically knock my commission off of the price. (Better to have someone working for you, especially when they have someone working for them.)
Homes do not sell because you put a Saint Joseph in your garden or your Mayan healer cleansed your karma with a smudge stick and an eagle feather. There are more than 20 people in the average residential real estate transaction. When you are looking to buy or sell you need an advocate to manage the timeline, the deadlines and the multiple personalities. Dream homes are found and sold because you’ve hired someone who knows their field, the market, the law, and helps their clients buy and sell their homes every month.
And that’s no lie.

aspensAutumn looks golden for the Denver housing market, as sales remain brisk. Following the hot-as-wildfire spring of 2013, summer found balance with the seasonal increase of inventory, with no cooling trend in sight as fall turns in a solid start to the 4th Quarter. Home sellers are glad to be back in the game, while motivated buyers are finding a bit of relief from the frenzy as the after school market brings a more measured pace. The latest data from Metrolist®

points to an unseasonably strong local market heading into the fall selling season. High inventory levels and homes sold numbers coupled with a leveling of average home prices indicate an extended and robust local market. By all year-over-year comparisons, the Denver market is significantly healthier than it was at this time last year. Twenty percent more homes closed in August 2013, over 5,500, than in August 2012. “We expect to see continued high sales velocity and inventory numbers well into the winter months,” noted Metrolist President and CEO Kirby Slunaker.
Available homes on the market increased over 6 percent in the past 30 days, providing a stabilizing factor for the market overall. While the available inventory of homes and condos continues to increase over prior months, there is still less than a 7 weeks supply of homes and condos.
“The impact of seasonality may not be as significant as we’ve seen in years past,” said Slunaker. “Increasing inventory spurred on by a hot early buying season will continue to provide sellers and buyers prolonged opportunities late into the year.”

Average sold prices decreased one percent month-over-month, averaging just over $312,000, but home prices are up nine percent from this time last year. Meanwhile, the average days on market (DOM) was recorded at 39 days, down 39 percent from this time last year. The low DOM figure indicates a quick turnaround time and continued competitive demand for Denver-area homes.
Slunaker continued, “Rising mortgage rates have impacted the local market slightly, primarily in the mid-level market. Luxury listings are still seeing significant strength, while first time and entry level buyers seem to have taken the changing rates in stride.”

If the real estate market continues to look as good as the Denver Broncos… Super Bowl party’s on me!
TracyShafferSignature

cyclone
How do you do it, oh friends of mine? Vacate your premises in a timely fashion while living your lives, raising your kids, working your jobs and closing your loans. I’ll bet your boxes are properly labeled, too.
I just moved. Or more specifically, some very strong men came to my house, loaded a truck full of my belongings drove them across town and unloaded them in my new abode. I’ve made numerous trips along the same trail with countless loads of boxes, files, photos, artwork and armloads of clothes. It took them about three hours, it’s taken me months. The new house is coming together, the old one is being prepped to sell, and aside from the stubbing of toes I am in heaven…and hell.
I’m a pretty organized person. I know where I put the Phillips screwdriver, keep the chaos at arm’s length and can crush a to-do list with one hand. None of this prepared me for a move.
I started with plenty of time, and then a flurry of good fortune took a hold of my life, leaving me with higher priorities than packing tape and ARC pick-ups. As I chipped away in what little spare time I had, I found little energy for the real task at hand, DECIDING. Every single thing you own must be dealt with, handled, and decided upon: does it have purpose or does it have meaning or does it fit? If the answer is no, pitch it. Easy at the start, but soon enough poof skirts are begging for a comeback and junk drawers scream to be sorted through and that eclectic offering called your stuff becomes a living nightmare of need, prompting the ashram fantasy.

“All changes, even the most longed for, have their melancholy, for what we leave behind us is a part of ourselves; we must die to one life before we can enter into another.”
– Anatole France

As a Realtor I facilitate this transition for others every day, managing the details of the business transaction while they care for the mountain of moving minutia, but it’s a whole ‘nother Oprah when you’re the one moving that mountain. Whether initiated by you or forced upon you, change is always a molecular shake up. No matter how much you anticipate a benevolent future or care to close a chapter of the past, a move holds all the complexities of closure. I am an expert in change; life has thrown me more curves than the Coney Island Cyclone and I’ve gotten pretty good at it. This one is one I have created, and though I have a few ideas about why (urban living, closer to my community, more manageable home, #EastHighSchool) I know there is still much to learn in the process aside from where to put the guest towels. As soon as they find their place, I am receiving.