Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May Shows Denver Real Estate Market’s Upward Trend

6217_s_josephine_way_MLS_HID853570_ROOMkitchen2Notes from the Denver Real Estate Market trenches: I’m seeing a lot, and I mean a LOT of multiple offer situations and better luck shopping for homes during the week rather than the weekends. Savvy listing agents are holding open a date when offers will be presented to allow maximum exposure and showings, then driving buyers to compete and close. Buyers, tired of this cycle and anxious to get under contract, are getting good at moving quickly and great buyers’ agents (that’d be me 😉 are adept at writing strong offers that will get accepted. A few oddities I’ve noticed: homes are coming “Back on Market” after being Under Contract and I’m seeing price reductions. The first tells me that Buyers may be getting caught up in the feeding frenzy and, wanting to win, may offer more than they’re comfortable with. There could also be inspection issues but what I’m seeing doesn’t look like it fits into that time frame. The second one, price reductions, indicates that there may be listing agents and sellers who enter the market over-confident with their pricing and need to adjust.
Remember, a house is not a hamburger. You can’t just show pretty pictures and charge what you like. A house is an emotional commodity and only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it. So… even in a Sellers Market, the Buyer dictates the price. Now, on to the data from Metrolist:
May 2014 Snapshot Image 669x310

DENVER – June 6, 2014 – Signaling the start of the summer buying and selling season, the real estate market for the Denver metro and surrounding area saw increased activity in May as buyers scooped up available inventory despite near record prices.
The pace of home sales picked up during the month of May, as the number of sold properties rose 19 percent month over month. In particular, demand for single-family attached homes saw a marked increase, rising 25 percent over last May.
Inventory in the Denver area continued its upward trend, as active listings increased 15 percent from April, and the number of new listings climbed 11 percent month over month. However, the market is still very competitive, as days on market saw a 17 percent decrease in May. Homes are moving quickly, averaging only 29 days on the market.
“We have seen a very active start to the summer selling season. The market is moving quickly, but an increasing inflow of new listings is a positive sign,” said Kirby Slunaker, president and CEO of Metrolist. “The market absorption rate highlights a high level of demand for properties and a reduction in days on market.”
The average single-family attached+detached property spent just 29 days on the market in May, down 34 percent over last year. There is currently a supply of just seven weeks’ worth of inventory in the Denver metro and surrounding area.
Continuing a 36-month trend, average sold prices were up 2 percent from April. Prices for single-family attached+detached homes reached $333,955, up 8 percent.
“As the largest MLS in Colorado, we are committed to providing agents and consumers with innovative tools and resources to navigate their way through this fast-paced sellers’ market,” said Slunaker. “In addition to having the most accurate, current and up-to-date property information, REcolorado.com is providing new innovative tools such as INRIX Drive Time™, which is available to assist consumers in making educated decisions as they work with their REALTOR®.”

May Stats Bar Graph 754x480

About REcolorado.com
Before entering the market, buyers and sellers can get free access to up-to-the-minute housing information throughout the state of Colorado at REcolorado.com. The website offers advanced search features and filters for price and location, as well as home values and scheduled open houses. This comprehensive local resource enables both buyers and sellers to enter the housing market well informed.
About Metrolist: Metrolist is the largest MLS in the state of Colorado, supporting the largest network of REALTORS® with the most comprehensive database of real property listings throughout the Front Range. Realtor-owned since 1984, Metrolist provides leading technology solutions to real estate agents and brokers to better serve buyers and sellers. More information about Metrolist is available at www.REcolorado.com.

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Doesn’t Take a Crystal Ball to See Where Denver Real Estate is Headed

psycihicDenver real estate market is strong and hot like a cup of coffee. After years of waiting for home prices to rise, the Denver real estate market is elevated. So why are buyers and sellers so hesitant to make their move? Let’s blame it on the media. Screaming headlines make money when the sky is falling.
For those of you who are considering buying or selling a property, understanding the big picture is critical. So let’s take a look at where in the real estate cycle the Denver market stands.
You may think this tremendous seller’s market and super tight inventory is something new, something that’s going to come to a head and suddenly erupt overnight. Not true. We are FOUR YEARS PAST THE BOTTOM of our last real estate cycle. This is a logical continuation of a market that is reacting strongly to the overselling we saw between 2007 and 2009, and finally bottomed out in 2009. It’s doing exactly what real estate market cycles do, go up and go down over long periods of time. Remember, over the past 40 years residential real estate appreciation has averaged 6 percent per year and there is no reason to think that is going to change over the next 40 years.
If you think of market cycles in the short-term, spiking and crashing over short periods of time it’s easy to see the sweet meteor of death hurling toward your swing set, but a quick look at the last market cycle shows clearly this is not how real estate works. Real estate cycles over the past 40 years, tend to move in much broader periods, 7-10 years typically. This is why predicting short-term market movements can be very difficult, whereas assuming the market will move in 7-10 cycles is a bit more realistic.
The past four years of the upswing has been largely a sellers’ market. Plummeting inventory, rising prices, nervous buyers often involved in multiple offers, and happy sellers often getting the price they wanted. Buyers can be very nervous, reading news articles, watching TV reports, and figuring the market is teetering on the brink of a crash and being afraid to buy. Rents are skyrocketing, up 8 percent this year alone and renters may confuse the short-term media screeds about this tremendous market with the long-term patterns of market cycles, thinking that the minute they buy a home the market is going to crash.
woman-with-crystal-ball
I don’t see this. And unlike my clients who may buy or sell a home ever 5-10 years, I work in real estate every day. No one can predict the real estate market with 100% accuracy. I can’t, the Federal Reserve can’t, the banks with all the money can’t, no one can. But, understanding how market cycles work, and recognizing how low our current inventory is, I can say with confidence I do not see any impending weakness in the market over the next couple of years. We are four years into what will probably be a typical 7-10 year cycle of low inventory and rising prices. I can’t tell you what the Dow Jones will finish at next Monday. I can’t tell you if the Rockies will win their fifth game of the season. I can’t tell you what the weather will be on June 15th, but I can say with confidence that real estate tends to move over predictable long-term trends, and this market cycle has a long way to go.

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Why Do I Keep Getting This Newsletter?

amazing soulsAdmit it. This thought has crossed your mind, hasn’t it? You’ve probably even made a mental note to ask me, or worse… unsubscribe. So what makes me send you this monthly missive? The reasons are few, but they’re mighty.
1. Yes, I am in the business of helping people buy and sell homes and I’d like for you to think of me should that thought also cross your mind. Pretty crafty, huh?
2. To keep you up to date with the Denver real estate market, how it’s doing and where it’s headed. Like this little ditty from USA Today.
2. I believe that life is richer when experienced in community, and that a community is empowered by engagement.
3. I believe that real estate is all about story. Every home, every buyer, every seller, comes with a tale to tell, a story to reveal.
4. I have a knack for meeting interesting people who do really cool things and I want to share them with you.
And here comes the mighty…
5. Every month when I send out my newsy little newsletter, chock full o’ tips about home values and market trends, writing of the wonders of a swanky little art space, or the best place to take a burlesque dance class on a Sunday morning, you call me. You reach out via comment, Facebook, phone or email to let me know what you thought, ask me a question, or (best of all) set up some face-time. And I like that. A lot.

Building and deepening relationships, creating dialogue, drinking coffee… whatever I can do to help you put a little bump in your daily grind.

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , ,

A Thanksgiving Tradition; passed on from playwright to playwright

Wreath
An autumn past, the glorious playwright James Still sent me an email with this Max Coots prayer/poem/chant. He has sent this to his circle for many years and I was quite moved to be included in this Thanksgiving tradition. And then there is the poem, so spectacular in truth and wit. I loved it so much I’ve adopted the tradition, sending you this a virtual whisper of thanks, as James calls it. I call it a poem for the table, a little salt and a bit of sugar. I hope you will share it, read it aloud (that’s just the best) or delete it if that pleases you.
If this is your first time receiving it we might have just met, or perhaps reconnected after many years. Perhaps you are a stranger, stumbling on it as a novice and to you I say welcome. If you remember it from seasons past, I hope you enjoy it once more and wrap yourself in the true feeling that comes with it. If you are one of the lucky ones, receiving this from me and my dear friend…you are twice blessed. May it fill your heart as the day does your belly.

Let us give thanks for a bounty of people:
For children who are our second planting.
And though they grow like weeds and the wind too soon blows them away,
May they forgive us our cultivation and remember fondly where their roots are.
Let us give thanks:
For generous friends, with hearts as big as hubbards and smiles as bright as their blossoms;
For feisty friends as tart as apples; for continuous friends, who, like scallions and cucumbers, keep reminding us we’ve had them.
For crotchety friends, as sour as rhubarb and as indestructible.
For handsome friends, who are as gorgeous as eggplants and as elegant as a row of corn, and the others, as plain as potatoes and so good for you.
For funny friends who are as silly as Brussels sprouts and as amusing as Jerusalem artichokes, and serious friends, as complex as cauliflowers and as intricate as onions.
For friends as unpretentious as cabbages, as subtle as summer squash, as persistent as parsley, as delightful as dill, as endless as zucchini, and who, like parsnips, can be counted on to see you throughout the winter.
For old friends, nodding like sunflowers in the evening-time and young friends coming on as fast as radishes.
For loving friends, who wind around us like tendrils and hold us, despite our blights, wilts, and witherings.
And finally, for those friends now gone, like gardens past that have been harvested, but who fed us in their times that we might have life thereafter; for all these we give thanks.

– Max Coots
1928-2009

Wishing you a warm and meaningful Thanksgiving

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

“Your Realtor for Life” A Love Story

Sitting in a real estate marketing seminar in a downtown Denver hotel, fluorescent lighting, those stiff, stacking chairs…The peppy presenter popped off a proposition. “What if you are more than their agent? What if you become their ‘Realtor for Life’? Still new to the whole real estate thing, I pondered this process and then…Matt and Kelly at home
I met Kelly on a late summer Denver day. We discovered, as we played in the park, that her eldest daughter would be joining my first son at an elementary school come fall. What we didn’t know was that we’d spend our lives together.
Then I met Felipe. He was Kelly’s husband. Of an autumn afternoon at the schoolyard, we chatted to the strains of swings on metal. He learned I was in real estate, I learned he was a hairdresser. We met a few weeks later to talk about selling their rental property, which I did. It was my first listing appointment, and he became my hairstylist.
The kids moved up a grade or two, we’d had some backyard barbecues, another child was born… ya know… life. I was offered a seat at their kitchen table. It was time to move along down romance road, time to sell the family home. Which I did.
Felipe met Molly. Molly need to sell her home. So I did. Kelly moved in to a rental, Molly and Felipe moved into a rental. We changed schools, I changed hairdressers—not for any particular reason, just because that’s what women do— we exchanged numbers and kept in contact. No… we kept in touch.
And where were we then, a pool, maybe? I remember Kelly in the sunshine, loading the kids into the van and waving from the carpool lane. “Call me” she motioned. And I did. It was time to buy a place of her own, where she could build a home and some equity. We found it.
Then Kelly met Matt. He was a software developer and you could see by the look in her eyes that something extraordinary was developing. (You know what’s coming don’t you?) They weren’t really looking when the called me, but they saw this home… 1391459_10202143854259316_2076064518_n (1)She has her three, Matt has two of his own, so it had to be roomy. And special. And it is.
So special, in fact, that they got married on the steps of their City Park South home and threw a block party reception that people are still talking about! The evening was magical; Matt and Kelly dancing in the marquee-lit street to the Trubelos, the young ones are rapt by the aerial ballet, the teenagers wrapped in one another, and the Governor chatting with the townsfolk.
Sitting at a table, Molly and Felipe hold hands as he catches up with his past life and the people who people it. Three days later we closed on their new home together.
Ah, you can’t beat love.

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Sellers, Buyers, Pants on Fires: and the truth about real estate agents.

picture-of-a-shifty-used-car-salesman-300x237
Real estate agents are not used car salesmen. We’re not interested in selling you a car [or house] and getting you off the lot before the wheels fall off, au contraire.

Why, if I had a dollar for every time I’ve kept the wheels on a deal….

There are a lot of misconceptions in the real estate business, and then there are the facts. In his book “Buyers are Liars and Sellers Are Too”, author Richard Courtney humorously debunks the irrational thinking that wraps the brains of homeowners and wannabe homeowners tighter than packing tape. From my old wooden desk his views are quite funny, but in the real world of real estate… not so much.
Courtney’s point is not that anyone’s intentionally dishonest, but that truth is mutable. For example, the laundry list of buyer “home must-haves” becomes something different after viewing twenty houses in their target area and price point. And those sellers, armed with Zillow statistics and trusty advice from the FSBO neighbor who sold for 100k less, believe all they have to do is name their price and stick a sign in the yard, knowing they’re probably overpriced. Truth comes later, when it’s still on the market long after the open house balloons have wilted and the flyers are gone from the brochure box. And it stings.
The first time I meet with a potential client, I ask them for permission to tell the truth. Invariably they smile, nod and agree they’d want nothing less, but sometimes as the process unfolds, selective amnesia slips in. Whether the market is up or down, favors buyers or sellers or you like what I have to tell you or not, here’s the truth.
Sellers:
• Your house is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it.
• Well priced homes sell quickly, often over the asking price.
• If you don’t have showings, you can’t sell your house, and if you’re priced too high you won’t have any showings.
• If you’ve had 10-15 showings without an offer, you’re overpriced.
• The colors you chose to match your belongings look too personal once the moving truck pulls out the driveway.
• You may hate beige but buyers love it.
• I cannot make anyone buy your home.
Buyers:
• I cannot make you buy a home you don’t want to buy.
• If I could do either of the last two I’d be writing the book on “Magical Realtorism” from a beach in Bali *waves to cabana boy*.
• You may want everything on your “dream house” list, but you might not get it all. Hopefully you’ll come very close.
• Realtors want you to pre-approve with a lender because it is in your best interest, not theirs (though it doesn’t hurt me either).
• Buying a home without an agent does not mean that the seller will automatically knock my commission off of the price. (Better to have someone working for you, especially when they have someone working for them.)
Homes do not sell because you put a Saint Joseph in your garden or your Mayan healer cleansed your karma with a smudge stick and an eagle feather. There are more than 20 people in the average residential real estate transaction. When you are looking to buy or sell you need an advocate to manage the timeline, the deadlines and the multiple personalities. Dream homes are found and sold because you’ve hired someone who knows their field, the market, the law, and helps their clients buy and sell their homes every month.
And that’s no lie.

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Fall Stays Strong in the Denver Housing Market

aspensAutumn looks golden for the Denver housing market, as sales remain brisk. Following the hot-as-wildfire spring of 2013, summer found balance with the seasonal increase of inventory, with no cooling trend in sight as fall turns in a solid start to the 4th Quarter. Home sellers are glad to be back in the game, while motivated buyers are finding a bit of relief from the frenzy as the after school market brings a more measured pace. The latest data from Metrolist®

points to an unseasonably strong local market heading into the fall selling season. High inventory levels and homes sold numbers coupled with a leveling of average home prices indicate an extended and robust local market. By all year-over-year comparisons, the Denver market is significantly healthier than it was at this time last year. Twenty percent more homes closed in August 2013, over 5,500, than in August 2012. “We expect to see continued high sales velocity and inventory numbers well into the winter months,” noted Metrolist President and CEO Kirby Slunaker.
Available homes on the market increased over 6 percent in the past 30 days, providing a stabilizing factor for the market overall. While the available inventory of homes and condos continues to increase over prior months, there is still less than a 7 weeks supply of homes and condos.
“The impact of seasonality may not be as significant as we’ve seen in years past,” said Slunaker. “Increasing inventory spurred on by a hot early buying season will continue to provide sellers and buyers prolonged opportunities late into the year.”

Average sold prices decreased one percent month-over-month, averaging just over $312,000, but home prices are up nine percent from this time last year. Meanwhile, the average days on market (DOM) was recorded at 39 days, down 39 percent from this time last year. The low DOM figure indicates a quick turnaround time and continued competitive demand for Denver-area homes.
Slunaker continued, “Rising mortgage rates have impacted the local market slightly, primarily in the mid-level market. Luxury listings are still seeing significant strength, while first time and entry level buyers seem to have taken the changing rates in stride.”

If the real estate market continues to look as good as the Denver Broncos… Super Bowl party’s on me!
TracyShafferSignature

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

What Eve Harrington Taught Me About My Real Estate Business

all about eve
Working as a professional actress has taught me many things: tenacity and humility for one. (Ha!). Along with the starring roles and the smaller roles come the understudying gigs. They’ve kept me on my toes, fully insured and employed. Largely the experience hasn’t been in the glamorous, deceitful, clamoring-for-fame vein portrayed in the 1950 film classic, All About Eve, mine have had been more in line with the Girl Scout motto.
Three decades in the industry has kept me ambitious, created a strong work ethic and instilled a somewhat healthy insecurity that feeds my drive. Pounding the pavement, perpetually prospecting and practicing persistence is the perfect training ground for a career in the real estate business, but nothing could have prepared me for spring of ’13.
After Romeo & Juliet, my first foray into the First Folio, I was looking forward to a seasonal ramp up in the real estate world and my end of season gig at the Denver Center Theatre as understudy in “Other Desert Cities”. Shoulda been a cakewalk, it was not.
The rapid acceleration of the Denver housing market coincided with my ascension from understudy to starring role and the first audience in just eight days. (Actually it was a 5 character ensemble play, but ‘starring role’ does sound, well… more dramatic). Time to drill down and focus on my lines; stringing together the beads of this complex and demanding character would come later. I was hitting the wall as we hit our “10 out of 12”, theatre speak for long-ass day, when an offer came in on my hot Congress Park listing. Negotiating a deal and my way around the stage, I had to find my clients a replacement home. Dinner breaks became showing appointments, opening doors as my lines streamed through my headphones, I existed on chocolate bars and power naps until… “You’re on, Eve.”eve harrington
The show opened, the clients closed on their new house and the actress/Realtor spent a week in Vail recuperating, which is important as the pace has not slowed. The message of my Girl Scout leader, BE PREPARED, has a whole new meaning with the real estate market at a break neck pace. “Prepared” to drop what you’re doing to snap up a showing on a snappy place, “prepared” with a purchase contract ever-ready on the tablet, “prepared” to list a home on Thursday, hold it open on Saturday and present offers on Sunday. “Prepared” went from having snacks and water in your ditty bag to performing the above tasks for multiple clients, sleeping very little, and loving it. If you’re looking to buy or sell a home, or both, I still have some treats in the ditty bag. Mostly chocolate.

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , ,

A Moving Tale

cyclone
How do you do it, oh friends of mine? Vacate your premises in a timely fashion while living your lives, raising your kids, working your jobs and closing your loans. I’ll bet your boxes are properly labeled, too.
I just moved. Or more specifically, some very strong men came to my house, loaded a truck full of my belongings drove them across town and unloaded them in my new abode. I’ve made numerous trips along the same trail with countless loads of boxes, files, photos, artwork and armloads of clothes. It took them about three hours, it’s taken me months. The new house is coming together, the old one is being prepped to sell, and aside from the stubbing of toes I am in heaven…and hell.
I’m a pretty organized person. I know where I put the Phillips screwdriver, keep the chaos at arm’s length and can crush a to-do list with one hand. None of this prepared me for a move.
I started with plenty of time, and then a flurry of good fortune took a hold of my life, leaving me with higher priorities than packing tape and ARC pick-ups. As I chipped away in what little spare time I had, I found little energy for the real task at hand, DECIDING. Every single thing you own must be dealt with, handled, and decided upon: does it have purpose or does it have meaning or does it fit? If the answer is no, pitch it. Easy at the start, but soon enough poof skirts are begging for a comeback and junk drawers scream to be sorted through and that eclectic offering called your stuff becomes a living nightmare of need, prompting the ashram fantasy.

“All changes, even the most longed for, have their melancholy, for what we leave behind us is a part of ourselves; we must die to one life before we can enter into another.”
– Anatole France

As a Realtor I facilitate this transition for others every day, managing the details of the business transaction while they care for the mountain of moving minutia, but it’s a whole ‘nother Oprah when you’re the one moving that mountain. Whether initiated by you or forced upon you, change is always a molecular shake up. No matter how much you anticipate a benevolent future or care to close a chapter of the past, a move holds all the complexities of closure. I am an expert in change; life has thrown me more curves than the Coney Island Cyclone and I’ve gotten pretty good at it. This one is one I have created, and though I have a few ideas about why (urban living, closer to my community, more manageable home, #EastHighSchool) I know there is still much to learn in the process aside from where to put the guest towels. As soon as they find their place, I am receiving.

/by
Tracy Shaffer
, , , , , , , , , , ,

Georgia O’Keeffe: the Beautiful and the DAM

rsz_okeeffe_georgia-chama_river_ghost_ranchThere’s nothing like a room full of O’Keeffe to make me want to take a road trip and the “Georgia O’Keeffe in New Mexico: Architecture, Katsinam and the Land” exhibit at the Denver Art Museum is no exception. Horizontal landscapes of rugged terrain, softened under pastel lights and sharpened on the shadow stimulate my need for the wide and the wild. When Georgia O’Keeffe came to the badlands of Abiquiu she was already an established and successful New York artist. The untamed West, rendered by a soul who’d found her place on earth brings serenity to every city wall she hangs on. Heavy with landscape, the exhibit takes us away from the larger, more familiar cow skulls and flowers of our collective remembrance and sits us down on a rock at sunset. Shapes, shadows, fine strokes and drama draw the viewer deeper down the river. Hopi influences aside, or perhaps front and center I found myself transported to a different time and place, staring at a church or a chasm as if alone in the enchantment.  O’Keeffe crowds solitude with the thick heat and thin air of the high mesa desert, in a tone-on-tone moment that contains life and death without judgement.
“I longed for quiet, a sense of personal attachment and a place that held meaning”, Georgia said of New Mexico.  Not only did she find it she became it, inspiring us as layers of light call to the mind to open up, to share.  A pencil sketch becomes an intimate whisper, the high blue mesa a best friend. Georgia O’Keeffe is the retreat you long to give yourself, and now she has come to you.
OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA
Georgia O’Keeffe in New Mexico: Architecture, Katsnim & the Land at the Denver Art Museum through April 28, 2013

/by