Tracy Shaffer
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The Bust Has Burst

As a follow-up to my previous article about the housing market and the mainstream media, I thought I’d post this. Just in from
The Wall Street Journal it seems they’re finally confident to announce what we’ve been watching here in Denver for the past six months.

From here on, housing is unlikely to drag the U.S. economy down further. It will instead reflect the strength or weakness of the overall economy: The more jobs, the more confident Americans are about keeping their jobs, the more they are willing to buy houses.

Though one thing in the article is not likely to affect the Denver market.

The biggest threat is a large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won’t put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders. They have been trickling onto the market, slowed in part by government efforts to delay foreclosures; a flood could reverse the recent rise in prices.

In Denver, the ‘Shadow’ is but a phantom. We currently have such low inventory, especially in homes priced under $250k, and our pre-foreclosure stats are well below the national average. Combine this with the Colorado’s swift foreclosure process and the fact that we hit the slump ahead of the curve, allowing us to recover sooner, we are not counting on a glut of “Shadow Inventory”.

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Tracy Shaffer
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Get Your Ducks in a Row Before You Go Hunting

There was a time, early in my real estate career, when I would take buyers out “window shopping”, testing the waters to get a feel for what my clients liked, before they had talked to a lender. More seasoned agents would scoff, “I don’t let a buyer in my car if they’re not pre-qualified!” I felt this was harsh. After all, loans were easy to come by and “pre-qualified” lender letters weren’t worth much. (It’s a pre-approval you’re looking for, anyway.)
Those days are over.
Though interest rates are still at historic lows, loan approval is harder to get. Even those who think their ducks are all lined up may find something sneaky lurking in their credit report: that Victoria Secret card you forgot to pay in the rush to the alter, the seventeen applications you filled out to finance the wedding, the car you had to buy last month when you blew a gasket on the Civic and that FreeCreditReport.com service you’re paying for is not the same as the credit score your lender pulls. Other factors, like your debt-to-income ratio may be working against you if your credit card balances are high. Now that the market is hot, don’t let the numbers leave you out in the cold.
So when your agent tells you to talk to a lender and get pre-approved before you go house-hunting, assume she knows what she’s talking about. It will not only give you a pretty accurate assessment of how much house you can afford and what your payment will be, it will save you (and her) valuable time. I’ve found many buyers their dream home, watched them fall in love, and witnessed the heartbreak when what they thought was pre-approval didn’t pan out. Some lenders have you fill out online applications (a drag, I know) and zip out a BING! YOU’RE APPROVED! message without having enough information to be sure. Best practice is to set up an appointment, have an in-depth phone call, or follow-up on that online application with the necessary paperwork (tax returns, pay stubs, etc.) your lender asks for. Real estate agents are your best resource for mortgage brokers and lenders because we work with them all day long. We know who answers their cellphone at five o’clock on a Saturday, guides the loan through underwriting and shows up at the closing table. And we know who doesn’t.
These days, before I put a buyer in my car, I want them pre-approved. I also want them to schedule a clear window of time to look at houses and be prepared to write an offer on the first one they fall in love with, because by some miracle, in 2012 that house may not be there tomorrow.

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Tracy Shaffer
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Renters Renting Regardless of Rising Rents

The Denver rental market is more than just healthy; it’s got a rosy glow. With vacancy rates low, prices for rental properties have risen and according to Poppy Harlow of CNN’s Early Start, Denver is one of the top five cities for rent increases, 10.9% over the past twelve months. That’s great news if you’re a landlord!
As the market fell and foreclosures soared, I have been focused on helping clients build wealth through investing in rental properties. Where are you going to move when you lose your home? A clean, safe, single-family home to rent where their lives and families can live and recover from the ordeal they’ve been through would be ideal. Many of these tenants would have had no problem paying their mortgages had they stayed at the pre-adjusted interest rates, or the troubles that befell them has passed. They are willing and able to pay good rent for a well-kept property that makes them feel back in balance. A recent survey on the rental market bears this out.
After surveying property managers, TransUnion found that increasing prices aren’t keeping tenants away. Overall, managers reported they are doing better than the year before and are having an easier time attracting in residents despite the increase in prices.
The credit bureau’s June survey included 1,248 property managers across the U.S. who represented a range of property sizes.
Read the Survey: Rental Market Attracting Residents Despite Price Increases. and let me know what you think.
There are some very attractive deals out there for those who want a good annual cash-on-cash return on their investment that owning real estate investment property provides, but the market is moving swiftly. I would recommend you do as well. “I don’t want to be a landlord” you say? I can help you with that through a few concise classes or introduce you to some affordable pros.

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Tracy Shaffer
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News That’s New to the News…

Well, look who’s coming back around. With all due respect for the “Respected Media”, it looks as if they finally got the memo. Though real estate, like the weather, is hyper-local the mainstream types reporting on the national outlook finally figured out that the housing market is growing again.
Both The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times said this week that “it would appear that housing is making a comeback”. Of course, REAL Trends has reported eight consecutive months of increased housing sales and three months of increasing housing prices, while NAR reports increased unit sales during the same time frame and that prices are firming.
Until Case Shiller said that prices were turning around, neither of these news organizations would report such a thing; perhaps that’s just as well. It took them 12 months to report that housing was headed downward. In fact, they still report the downturn as occurring in the spring/summer of 2006 when in reality the beginning of the slide was in fall 2005. That is when unit sales began to slump on an annual basis. Yes, I’m being picky…
The media may not always be fair or accurate in their reporting on the housing market. Recent years of staff cutbacks across the nation’s newspapers have left researchers and reporters without the time or (perhaps the inclination) to really research any sources that don’t fit their preconceptions.
Overreliance on Case Shiller tend to mask a real turnaround in most housing markets. Thanks to consumers and investors alike, housing is starting the long road back to health. Those of us “on the ground” have witnessed six months of solid grown in the Denver housing market, with homes selling quickly at or above asking price.
Though I’m not ready to start the parade (my calves are still sore from today’s Independence festivities) or predict a huge breakout of double digit appreciation, the evidence is overwhelming that housing is on the way back. Could it be time to strike up the band?

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Tracy Shaffer
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First Time Home Buyers in Denver Get a Little Credit

Are you a first-time homebuyer but missed that big tax credit? Are you tired of paying rent or is your rent being raised to astronomical limits? So let me ask you this… If you thought you could get a good deal and a $2000 tax credit, would you like to own a house in Denver? Good news.
The City and County of Denver announced a new Mortgage Credit Certificate program that enables qualified borrowers to receive an annual federal income tax credit equal to 30 percent of the yearly interest paid on their mortgage loan, up to $2,000 annually, the city announced Tuesday.
“For many families, home ownership is a primary method of asset building and saving for the future,” says Denver Mayor Michael Hancock. “We’re providing a financial boost to individuals and families while increasing home ownership opportunities and the overall strength and vitality of Denver neighborhoods.” Lenders can use the estimated amount of the credit on a monthly basis as additional income to help a potential borrower qualify for a loan, the city said.
There are stipulations to the program. To qualify, borrowers must purchase a residence in the City and County of Denver and income restrictions apply ($79,300 for one or two persons and $91,195 for three or more). The maximum allowable purchase price for a home is $370,252, although higher income and purchase price limits are available in targeted areas. Participants cannot have owned a home in the past three years, except in targeted areas and for qualifying veterans.
Only certain lenders are approved to participate in Denver’s Mortgage Credit Certificate program and Paul Orrell at Megastar Financial, one of my favorites, is among them. Click here if you’d like more information about the Denver Mortgage Credit Certificate program, then shoot me an email. I’d be glad to go over your options.

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Tracy Shaffer
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Denver’s Hot Real Estate Market?

Saying The Denver real estate market is hot is like saying that the U.S Congress works together in perfect harmony…except, the first statement is true. It will take a while before Denver home buyers believe it, but it is a Seller’s market…and a buyer’s market, too. Huh?
It sounds like a paradox but in fact it perfectly describes our current Denver Metro real estate market. Here’s how:
In the market below $300k where 80% of the homes are sold it’s a blistering seller’s market. You heard it right, a seller’s market! There are only three months of inventory sitting on the market right now, where six months is considered a normal, balanced market. There are simply more buyers than sellers right now and this is translating into multiple offers on listings, sales prices often well above asking prices, and marketing times plummeting.

Particularly hot is the market below $225k, which has only two months of inventory. It’s not uncommon for a listing to have 10 showings and a full price offer in the first week. There are a number of factors that have caused this dynamic, one of which is the dramatic reduction in the number of bank-owned and short sale properties on the market. This reduction in distressed inventory has left regular home sellers in a great position and contributed to the sizzling seller’s market.

Ok, so we know it’s a seller’s market. Then, how can it also be a fantastic buyer’s market at the same time? It is, because according to the National Association of Realtors the Home Affordability Index is at its highest recording ever. Just like it sounds, the HAI is a measure of how affordable homes are in a given area. It’s calculated by comparing the median price of a home in the Metro Denver market to the median worker’s income level, taking into account the current interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan. What this means is that the median income earner can buy more house today than ever before. Why? Because home prices, while rising quickly, are still well below their peak prices of 5-6 years ago and interest rates are at never-before-seen historic lows. Take it all together and the average home on the market HAS NEVER BEEN MORE AFFORDABLE.

So, while it seems like a paradox that it can be both a great time to sell and a great time to buy, it’s actually quite true. Call me and I’d be happy to explain more how we got to this state in the market and how you can take advantage of it.

Denver Metro Housing Stats.
Single Family:
Active Listings: 8,082 • Down 40% from Feb. ‘11
Under Contracts: 3,329 • Up 13% from Feb. ‘11
Solds: 1,978 • Up 12% from Feb. ‘11
Average Price: $270,821 • Up 2% from Feb. ‘11
Average Days on Market: 106 • Down 14% from Feb. ‘11
Condos:
Active Listings: 2,004 • Down 49% from Feb. ‘11
Under Contracts: 821 • Up 11% from Feb. ‘11
Solds: 517 • Up 13% from Feb. ‘11
Average Price: $161,143 • Up 4% from Feb. ‘11
Average Days on Market: 101 • Down 22% from Feb. ‘11

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Tracy Shaffer
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Death and Taxes… again


Hopefully the first is a long way off, but the second is looming once again. Whether you have an accountant on staff, go to the national tax franchise or are a DIY kinda guy/gal, some of these resources might help.
I learned a long time ago, never to attempt doing my own hair or my taxes, but as an independently-minded broad I want to arm myself with as much info as I can as I head into tax season, either to feel a sense of power or just to drive my tax guy crazy. So, as you sort through your envelopes, spread sheets, baskets, couch cushions and files, trying to squeeze every dime out of your tax return, check out these sites.
Because…not all of us keep our cash in the Caymans.
• American Opportunity Tax Credit
• Charitable Donation Tax Deduction
• Tax Credit for Buying a Home (My fav!)
• 3 Tips to Maximize Itemized Deductions
• Home Equity Loan Deduction
• Can I Deduct a Donation Made on a Credit Card?
• Home Office Deduction
You can explore further by going to the IRS site and here are some lists created by my “staff CPA” or on. http://taxes.about.com/od/deductionscredits/Deductions_Credits.htm

Take heart, my friends, as you stay up into the wee hours, surrounded by piles and blinded by trying to read that faded ink…No matter how it ends up or which way the tax check is written, it’s your very own contribution toward reducing the national debt.
*laughs wildly*

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Tracy Shaffer
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“Inspect Yourself”

…with all due respect to the Staples Singers
You’ve found the perfect house! Redone tip-to-toe! That kitchen with the gleaming stainless and the leathered granite is perfect, the master suite, divine, and the water feature will provide a soothing soundtrack for starlit summer nights on the back patio. It’s your dream house… until you see the Inspection Report.
Part “honey-do” list, part diagnosis, a home inspection is the best way to make sure your dream house isn’t a nightmare with a fresh coat of paint. No one wants to shell out $300-$600 to have someone crawl up in the attic and scope your sewer line, but believe me it may be the best money you spend in your home-buying (or selling) process. Last week, I thought for sure we’d fall out of contract once I delivered the Inspection Objection—it was the BIG LIST, and it had to be done by the seller if my buyer was going to go through with the purchase.

1. New roof
2. Sewer line offset repaired
3. Radon mitigation system installed
4. Electrical work on aluminum wiring
5. We overlooked the aging water heater.
So… now you know. What’s next? She had beaten the competing offers so she was paying a fair price, market value, certainly no bargain. With little room for $15-20k worth of repairs, especially on items which are considered “health and safety” issues, which can hold up the loan if left unattended, the buyer has some decisions to make. And I have some questions to ask, the one that tops the list…
Whose problem is it?
Thinking we might be at risk of losing the house, I sat with my client over coffee and asked her how she felt about all of this.
1. Do you love this house enough to stay in the deal?
2. Are you willing to do the work yourself?
3. What on this list is most important to you?
We worked our way through her options, she made her decisions, and I sent over the “final four” on our list of objections to the listing agent. “Do you think they’ll go for it?” my buyer asked, uncertain. “We know what you want, all we can do is ask“ (And I love the ask).
If a seller is motivated, your requests are not unreasonable, and the agents are good at what they do, chances are you can find a solution that suits all. In our case, that’s just what happened, but it ain’t always the case. So… how do you avoid the less harmonious outcome to this situation?
Sellers usually have a pretty good idea about what is wrong with their homes. The problem is they are used to living with that squeak in the floor, the drip in the downstairs bathroom and that little flicker in the dining room light fixture when the kids are on the computer. Many times, they’ll spend time and money preparing to put their house on the market, only to find a slew of hidden problems upon the Buyer’s inspection and a bucket of resentment along with them. It might be a good idea to have a home inspection BEFORE you list your property; that way, you’re able to make pre-market repairs or price accordingly if you choose not to. Buyers write offers based upon their emotional response to a home, but they walk away from contracts based upon practical matters. Chances are, they’ll feel better about a coat of paint or buying a new refrigerator than installing a radon system or a sewer repair. For Sellers, it’s “Be Prepared” and for Buyers “Beware”. In either case you will forget about the $300 check soon enough, but there will be that night at 2 a.m. when you’ll remember the mold report and wonder if it’s growing in your drywall… and if your buyer’s going to find it.

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Tracy Shaffer
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BABA RAM DASS AND THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

It took Dr. Richard Alpert, Timothy Leary and countless hits of LSD to learn one simple truth: Be Here Now. So what can the psychologist-turned-spiritual guru, Baba Ram Dass, teach you about today’s Denver real estate market? BUY. HERE. NOW.
With nary a trace of mind-altering substance in sight, I can honestly tell you that the time to list your home for sale in the Denver metro area is NOW.
“How now” you say?
• Because EVERYONE else IS WAITING until spring.
• Because buyers ARE out looking.
• Because SHOWINGS ARE UP and inventory is down.
• Because all FOUR OFFERS I wrote in January created a BIDDING WAR.
Now, we all know war is not the answer but in real estate, a competitive market results in sellers driving their purchase price above their asking price. At this point (Jan/Feb, so I’m being here this quarter) the demand exceeds supply and buyers are flying out to snatch up well-priced properties like savvy shoppers after Christmas at Filene’s Basement. There is simply not enough out there. And I’m not just talking of the under-$200-first-time-buyer/investor end of the market. A home priced at or around $300k is likely to move well, despite the common seasonal perception, the Super Bowl or the weather. On Friday, as constant snow flurries were rapidly accumulating inches, agents were rushing out to show homes in order to present their offer s before the “Highest & Best” deadline. (I know this, I was one of them.) Today I submitted an offer for a buyer on a property, sight unseen. The home fit his criterion and he’d been beaten out three other times, so today we take no prisoners.
If you are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the winter storm to pass before you list your house, remember… you could be pushing up daisies before the crocus pushes through the frosty ground. Now, I don’t mean that in the literal sense of the metaphor, but in the BE HERE NOW spirit.
If you’d like more information on the value of your house, trends in your neighborhood, or a yoga class near you, send me a vibe, a text or find me on Facebook. As the guru said…“We’re all just walking each other home.”
― Ram Dass

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Tracy Shaffer
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The New Year’s Rainbow and the Housing Market

I tend toward optimism. The New Year is always quite appealing. It’s not that I believe there will be a sudden, magical turn in the way life works, ushered in by a herd of unicorns; I like the New Year in the same way I like clean, white sheets.
January is filled with energy, coming off of the seasonal rest we call the holidays. Things are wrapped up with shiny bows; gifts and year-end spread sheets. There is an ending, the ball drops, you rest, wake up and begin all over again. I love it. For many 2011 was a rough year; a devastating tsunami, a lingering doubt over the debt ceiling and our jobs. For others it was glorious; oppressive regimes were overthrown and the taste of freedom filled the air. The global economic uncertainty of the day can stop you in your tracks if you let it, but even Chicken Little eventually realized it was not the sky that was falling, but the rain.
Here in Denver, 2011 was not the worst year in the housing market. Though families still struggle to keep their homes, those numbers are receding and we are well beyond the “crisis”. Investors have stepped up (or rushed in) to purchase distressed homes, gentrifying neighborhoods and flipping them for first time buyers or building their portfolios with buy and hold strategies. Vacancy rates in Denver are under 2%, making landlords very happy. This is all good news as the housing market recovers from the ground up.
We begin 2012 with the standard economic indicators up; consumer confidence, GDP, retail sales, housing starts and existing home sales, while the unemployment is slightly down. The good news kibble:
• Pending Home Sales index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) went UP 7.3% in November, hitting its highest level since April 2010!
• NAR’s chief economist commented, “Housing affordability conditions are at a record high and there is pent-up demand from buyers who’ve been on the sidelines. The sustained rise in contract activity suggests that closed existing-home sales should continue to improve in the months ahead.”
• The S&P Case-Shiller index for October showed minor price drops in 19 of the 20 surveyed metro areas, but the index was UP 1.9% from its post-crisis low in March 2011.
I am a news junkie, constantly scanning cable news shows and internet sources to see what the ‘experts’ have to say and to learn both sides of the issue. Lately, where real estate is concerned, everything I watch says yes. Even the “con” side says “yes with caution”, which makes perfect sense to me.
As we head full gallop into an election cycle, we can expect to be pummeled for the next ten months with tales of silver linings, predictions of doom. That’s their job. Mine is to help people buy, sell and invest in real estate, creating wealth in the process. Cue the Unicorns.

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