Denver housing market, news and trends.

Tracy Shaffer
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The Buyer/Seller Love Connection


I am (where real estate is involved) lucky in love. I’m not talking about the beach house I got in the last divorce *winks* but how often I find Cupid at the closing table. It takes work to find a house with everything on your buyers’ wish list, but it’s nothing short of kismet when the brother and sister selling their father’s home meet the mother and the two kids who’ll soon be hanging out in the tree house their father built. Every home has a tale to tell, and when that love story moves from one chapter to the next as gracefully as a Jane Hamilton novel, you know you’ve made a “love connection”.
Manufacturing love stories between buyers and sellers… that can be a tricky matter.
Perhaps it’s the rise of social media, where everything is suddenly shared, or the result of Denver’s revived real estate market where the multiple-offer situation has made a comeback, but the latest accessory to go with an offer is not an earnest money check, it’s… The Love Letter.
I had a few of these cross my desk when the market was struggling. Sellers, desperate to sell and worn down by the reality of their diminished property values, were thrilled to hear those four little words, “We have an offer”. Until the contract hit my inbox, followed by a “We really, really love you house, we just don’t want to pay much for it” letter, which usually left a sour taste in and brought a few choice words out of the sellers’ mouths. I’d say it was the real estate equivalent of Fifty Shades of Grey; lousy writing and you know someone’s about to get screwed.
Enter the hero. The market shifted, and so did the tone of this tome. With multiple offers a common occurrence, buyers (or their agents) believe if they add a bit of folksy insight into who they are— Their years in Seminary, how he fell in love with the garage, she with the garden and how the shed is perfect for their chickens— that flattery will give them an edge.
Now everybody’s got a gimmick, I get that. The homeless bear signs—“Homeless Vet” “Dog-lover”, “God Bless” (complete with Ichthus), or “Will Work for Beer” aiming at their niche market, their tribe. Buyers try and create some commonality with the stranger who currently occupies their dream home, or perhaps they’ve lost the past three offers and are looking for something other than raising their price to cinch the deal. Call me old fashioned, but isn’t that the Realtor’s job? I consider it my job— make that my sacred duty— to not only find my clients the right house, but to put together a fair and decent offer and present it to the seller’s agent, along with a persuasive argument on behalf of my buyer. That is the opening move in a strong negotiation. If I’m worth my salt, of course my clients will be over-the-moon with excitement at finding their dream home, but once we bring the personal into an already emotional business transaction, I fear the salt/wound proximity increases.
This idea of including a buyer’s note is circling around my office like a chain letter, and I don’t care if the world will end in ten days or killer bees will take over the Volvo, I’m here to break it. There are plenty of opportunities for good real estate agents to share your passion and exchange drawings of the chicken coop. To a seller the passion you feel is reflected, not through an effusive statement that your Goldens must have come from the same litter, but by strength of your offer.

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Tracy Shaffer
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More Good News on the Denver Housing Market

And don’t we all need a little good news? Working in the real estate trenches I’ve been watching the steady turn around, especially evident in 2012 as the Denver real estate market took a sharp turn for the better. Today’s Denver Business Journal announced the data to back up my experience.

Colorado’s housing market stands out as the fifth-strongest in the country, according to the website 24/7 Wall Street.
Home prices across the state have increased by an average of 7.3 percent over the past year, putting Colorado between North Dakota (7.1 percent) South Dakota (8.3 percent). The ranking was based on a review of data from various sources, including the CoreLogic Home Price Index and foreclosure reports from RealtyTrac. 24/7 Wall Street forecasts Colorado home prices will increase by 3.7 percent between the first quarter of the year and the first quarter of next year.

Good news for the Dakotas, but we get to live in Colorado! If you’d like more information about your neighborhood or how you can make this market work for you, call, text, email or comment here and we’ll talk.

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Tracy Shaffer
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How Affordable is Denver Home Ownership? Glad you asked.

“I See What You Mean” (Big Blue Bear) created by Lawrence Argent, photograph by Elizabeth Thomsen
You may be surprised to know that in the Denver metro area, The Home Affordability Index (HAI) is at its highest recording ever. What does that mean? The HAI compares the median price of a home in the Metro Denver real estate market to the median income level, and brings the current interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan into the equation. As a home buyer this is good news as the median income earner can buy more house today than ever before. Why? Because home prices, while rising quickly, are still well below their peak prices of 5-6 years ago and interest rates are at never-before-seen historic lows. It is the interest rates that continue to make homes so wonderfully affordable, so let’s dig into those a bit.
The typical rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage tumbled below 3.5% for the first time last week, the latest record low in a trend that has fired up homes sales around the country. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of what lenders are offering to qualified borrowers showed the 30-year rate at an average of 3.49%, down from 3.53% the week before. The 15-year fixed loan fell from 2.83% to an almost unbelievable 2.8%! Let’s put this in perspective. In late July 2010 and 2011 the typical 30-year rate in the Freddie Mac survey was just over 4.5%, more than a percentage point higher than now. The 30-year rate was above 6% in 2006 and most of 2007, over 8% back in 2000, and over 10% in 1990. Back in the bad old days of inflation, the rate topped 18% in 1981. Look at how the interest payments affect your monthly Principle and Interest payments:
$200,000 property in 1981 at 18% interest: $3,014
$200,000 property in 1990 at 10% interest: $1,755
$200,000 property in 2000 at 8% interest: $1,467
$200,000 property in 2007 at 6.5% interest: $1,264
$200,000 property in 2011 at4.5% interest: $1,013
$200,000 property in 2012 at 3.5% interest: $898
But wait, there’s more! According to a recent CNN Money article the average cost of closing on a mortgage has fallen by 7.4% over the past year. At the end of June, a homebuyer looking to close on a $200,000 mortgage with 20% down paid an average of $300 less than 12 months earlier. Even if you don’t have 20% down payment saved, you can put 3.5% on an FHA mortgage. Very attractive, no?
No one knows how long these historically low rates can last. But in the meantime my clients are taking advantage of them to buy the homes of their dreams and lock in once-in-a-lifetime interest rates.

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Tracy Shaffer
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WHAT I DID ON MY SUMMER VACATION

It’s the third Monday of August and I can’t believe school started today. It never seems like there’s enough of summer, no matter how you fill it. This year we took off for New York the week after graduation, spent ten jam-packed & fun-filled days, and then returned to Colorado’s wildfires and 50+ days of oppressive heat. Where did those idyllic summer days spent swatting bugs and camping on a lake go? Did they evaporate in the drought or global warming, or was I just making that stuff up?
My summer sons used to fill their days with parks and pools and tennis lessons. They tried baseball, fencing, went to soccer camps, tore up playgrounds and ran everywhere they went. Then came the summer of love… as I was frantically trying to satisfy their (or was it my?) artistic, culturally aware, intellectually stimulating and physically challenging schedules, they piped up with “Mom. Why do we have to do anything? We just want to sleep in.” I get their point. I love to sleep in too and with the freedom from school bells and missed buses, I can usually make it to… about seven. Three months of sleeping boys and selling houses gives way to the rude awakening as the laughter of the morning DJs hit my ear at 5:30.
Back to school puts us back on schedule. I’m up; I’m at the gym, home, showered, caffeinated and ready to take on the day. As autumn approaches, I begin to squirrel away my proverbial nuts, making plans for the year ahead and switching into high gear as the temperatures drop. Though summer is regarded as the selling season in real estate, fall and winter are most often my most productive quarters. And while that might feel like the salmon swimming upstream, I find the lazy daze of summer bring out recreational buyers who may be toying with the idea, and more sellers who want to ‘put it on the market and see what happens’. The cooler months coax the serious out of hibernation. Denver real estate stats for the second quarter were up and July looks equally promising for the market with inventory down and prices edging up. Fall, with its focus on the election, will tell its own story, but I see brighter days even as we lose the light!
Denver Metro Single Family Housing Stats, July 2012:
Active Listings: 9,087 • Down 35% from July ‘11
Under Contracts: 4,181 • Up 23% from July ‘11
Solds: 3,713 • Up 20% from July ‘11
Average Price: $312,920 • Up 5% from July ‘11
Average Days on Market: 64 • Down 35% from July ‘11

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Tracy Shaffer
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The Stats Behind the Real Estate Recovery

Nothing happens overnight. After years of struggling with the housing crisis and millions of Americans struggling to stay in their homes, it looks as though we are finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. I live and work in Denver so this is the market of my expertise. With boots on the ground here, I’ve seen signs of the housing recovery for the past six months and it just keeps getting better. The Denver real estate market keeps trending upward and the following article from Canyon Title gives you some of the nuts and bolts reasons why that is so.

According to Reis Analytics, expansion and growth continue in the Denver Metro Area. While the recession did not bite as deeply into Denver as into other high-growth economies, the losses inemployment were substantial. But with job creation running positive for about the past two years, a substantial portion of the overall loss has been redeemed. According to preliminary data for April 2012, provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), non-farm employment was up 2.0% (24,100 jobs) from 12 months prior and was up 3.8% (45,300 jobs) over 24 months.

Additionally, “Metro Denver is repeatedly recognized as a bright spot in the national economy, thanks to our diverse array of high-tech businesses, relatively low cost of doing business, active and highly educated population, and ability to attract and retain a young and vibrant workforce,” said Patty Silverstein, the Metro Denver EDC’s (Economic Development Corporation) chief economist. “Forbes recently ranked Denver fifth on its 2012 list of the ‘Best Places for Business and Careers’ and Colorado ranked eighth on the Enterprising States report list of states expected to grow and prosper in the coming years. Across the nation, others are taking note of the slow and steady-but promising-momentum in Metro Denver.”

If you, or someone you know, is interested in learning more about how TODAY’S real estate market relates to you, please shoot me an email, sign up for the newsletter or give me a call. I’d be glad to go over your options and serve your best interests.

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Tracy Shaffer
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The Bust Has Burst

As a follow-up to my previous article about the housing market and the mainstream media, I thought I’d post this. Just in from
The Wall Street Journal it seems they’re finally confident to announce what we’ve been watching here in Denver for the past six months.

From here on, housing is unlikely to drag the U.S. economy down further. It will instead reflect the strength or weakness of the overall economy: The more jobs, the more confident Americans are about keeping their jobs, the more they are willing to buy houses.

Though one thing in the article is not likely to affect the Denver market.

The biggest threat is a large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won’t put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders. They have been trickling onto the market, slowed in part by government efforts to delay foreclosures; a flood could reverse the recent rise in prices.

In Denver, the ‘Shadow’ is but a phantom. We currently have such low inventory, especially in homes priced under $250k, and our pre-foreclosure stats are well below the national average. Combine this with the Colorado’s swift foreclosure process and the fact that we hit the slump ahead of the curve, allowing us to recover sooner, we are not counting on a glut of “Shadow Inventory”.

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Tracy Shaffer
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Renters Renting Regardless of Rising Rents

The Denver rental market is more than just healthy; it’s got a rosy glow. With vacancy rates low, prices for rental properties have risen and according to Poppy Harlow of CNN’s Early Start, Denver is one of the top five cities for rent increases, 10.9% over the past twelve months. That’s great news if you’re a landlord!
As the market fell and foreclosures soared, I have been focused on helping clients build wealth through investing in rental properties. Where are you going to move when you lose your home? A clean, safe, single-family home to rent where their lives and families can live and recover from the ordeal they’ve been through would be ideal. Many of these tenants would have had no problem paying their mortgages had they stayed at the pre-adjusted interest rates, or the troubles that befell them has passed. They are willing and able to pay good rent for a well-kept property that makes them feel back in balance. A recent survey on the rental market bears this out.
After surveying property managers, TransUnion found that increasing prices aren’t keeping tenants away. Overall, managers reported they are doing better than the year before and are having an easier time attracting in residents despite the increase in prices.
The credit bureau’s June survey included 1,248 property managers across the U.S. who represented a range of property sizes.
Read the Survey: Rental Market Attracting Residents Despite Price Increases. and let me know what you think.
There are some very attractive deals out there for those who want a good annual cash-on-cash return on their investment that owning real estate investment property provides, but the market is moving swiftly. I would recommend you do as well. “I don’t want to be a landlord” you say? I can help you with that through a few concise classes or introduce you to some affordable pros.

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Tracy Shaffer
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“Home Sales Slow Slightly but Still Up”… see what I mean?

Every little thing is a big thing these days. Working our way out of the greatest economic downturn in recent history, combined with election year histrionics tend to create some confusing headlines. It’s like seeing a fire ant on the sidewalk, taking a magnifying glass to it and finding you’ve blown the damn thing up!
CNNMoney ran an article late June featuring the ant and the magnifying glass, but buried the picnic basket. If you read only

Home sales slowed slightly in May, as the housing market continues on its bumpy road to recovery.Sales of existing homes in May slipped 1.5% versus the month prior, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday…

well that sounds kinda bad. Until you read the next line “to an annualized rate of 4.55 million.”
And now the picnic basket the ant is presumably heading toward.

The May sales figures are still a big improvement versus last year, up 9.6% compared with the annualized sales rate of 4.15 million in May of 2011, the NAR said. The median existing home price in the U.S. rose 7.9% over the same period, according to the report.

Now I’d like to lay out the checkered table cloth… (bold type mine)

Analysts say that demand among potential homebuyers remains solid, with many having put off purchases during the downturn in the past few years. Home prices remain affordable and mortgage rates are at record lows, but limited access to credit and high down payment requirements are holding back sales.

The last part about the credit scores and down payments? It’s true that lenders and underwriters being more diligent, as they should be, but there are also a wide variety of mortgage products and down payment programs available. The dramatic ending, “holding back sales” may be doing just that.

Read the article in its entirety and tell me what you think.

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Tracy Shaffer
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News That’s New to the News…

Well, look who’s coming back around. With all due respect for the “Respected Media”, it looks as if they finally got the memo. Though real estate, like the weather, is hyper-local the mainstream types reporting on the national outlook finally figured out that the housing market is growing again.
Both The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times said this week that “it would appear that housing is making a comeback”. Of course, REAL Trends has reported eight consecutive months of increased housing sales and three months of increasing housing prices, while NAR reports increased unit sales during the same time frame and that prices are firming.
Until Case Shiller said that prices were turning around, neither of these news organizations would report such a thing; perhaps that’s just as well. It took them 12 months to report that housing was headed downward. In fact, they still report the downturn as occurring in the spring/summer of 2006 when in reality the beginning of the slide was in fall 2005. That is when unit sales began to slump on an annual basis. Yes, I’m being picky…
The media may not always be fair or accurate in their reporting on the housing market. Recent years of staff cutbacks across the nation’s newspapers have left researchers and reporters without the time or (perhaps the inclination) to really research any sources that don’t fit their preconceptions.
Overreliance on Case Shiller tend to mask a real turnaround in most housing markets. Thanks to consumers and investors alike, housing is starting the long road back to health. Those of us “on the ground” have witnessed six months of solid grown in the Denver housing market, with homes selling quickly at or above asking price.
Though I’m not ready to start the parade (my calves are still sore from today’s Independence festivities) or predict a huge breakout of double digit appreciation, the evidence is overwhelming that housing is on the way back. Could it be time to strike up the band?

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Tracy Shaffer
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Who Puts the Dream in Dream House?

I grew up in a Dream House; a California Contemporary, resting in the shadow of a graceful Fredrick L Roehrig home, built for publisher Andrew McNally in 1893. This home gave birth to the future Spanish Colonial Revivalist master, Wallace Neff, and was his childhood home. You can see from the picture where he took his inspiration. My home inspired me as well as I trace time, I see its watermark upon my life. Maybe it was the land, a Spanish grant called Rancho Los Coyote, or the publisher who purchased it and planted the 500 acres of olive trees, or the proximity to Disneyland that made me who I am today; writer/ dreamer/Realtor. It all begins at home.
Long summer days were spent in the ‘cement pond’ or playing Barbies on the warm deck coping. Is it any wonder I love Spanish Colonial Revival architecture, David Hockney and Dream House Acres? Check the vid and you’ll see what I mean. xoxo

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