Tracy Shaffer
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Home Prices Rise to Outpace Inflation

 

It’s March and home prices are rising annually, outpacing inflation. Real estate data group, CoreLogic recently released their January 2017 Home Price Index (HPI), showing prices increased 0.7 percent month-over-month and 6.9 percent year-over-year.“A combination of factors is driving momentum ahead of the curve,

says Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist of CoreLogic.

“With lean for-sale inventories and low rental vacancy rates, many markets have seen housing prices outpace inflation. Over the 12 months through January of this year, the CoreLogic Home Price Index recorded a 6.9 percent rise in home prices nationally and the CoreLogic Single-Family Rental Index was up 2.7 percent—both rising faster than inflation.”

Accounting for limited available inventory, CoreLogic’s HPI Forecast expects home prices to rise 0.1 percent month-over-month from January to February, and 4.8 percent year-over-year from January 2017 to January 2018.

“Home prices continue to climb across the nation, and the spring home-buying season is shaping up to be one of the strongest in recent memory. A potent mix of progressive economic recovery, demographics, tight housing stocks and continued low mortgage rates are expected to support this robust market outlook for the foreseeable future. We expect the CoreLogic [HPI] to rise 4.8 percent nationally over the next 12 months, buoyed by lack of supply and continued high demand”

adds Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

And according to Realtor.com, spring home-buying season got an early jump this year, indicating record-high home prices and record-low days on market for February. This is especially true for Denver where you’ll see in the chart that showings for February are up over this time last year. Time to move!

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Tracy Shaffer
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Undecided? I don’t get it.

It’s late October in a very tight presidential race. Pols shift twice in the same day and the election is coming down to swing states and undecided voters, though I’m not sure exactly who these people are. The issue is not that the Democrats and Republicans have successfully laid out their vision for the next 4 (or 8) years, because neither of them has been too clear on that, or that I don’t think it’s really important and has a profound impact on my future, because it does. I know. It does. The issue is… I can’t decide. Really?
I consider myself decisive and spontaneous in general, but I am slow and deliberate when it comes to making the big decisions, gathering all available information and trying on perspective outcomes in the dressing room of my mind. When weighing out the cost/benefit ratio of a situation, what is it that makes one finally take a stand, or take action?
The word ‘SALE’ has some power over me, at least it gets my interest. Once piqued I am swirling through the— Do I need it? Do I want it? Does it solve a problem? Is it cheap enough?— cycle until either I buy or walk away. Even when that “One Day Only!” sale fills me with a sense of urgency, I know I can always come back…like to next month’s “One Day Only!” sale.
So what about the big things? Deciding on a president or buying a house? (You knew I’d go there)
I have binders full of buyers, debating over whether or not its time to get off the fence. Right now Denver Colorado is in the top five cities leading the housing market recovery. Home prices are rising steadily, foreclosures are in decline, inventory is low, the home affordability index is high and the money’s on sale. What questions do you need to ask yourself before you take the leap?
Beyond the “One Day Only!” hype, buyers who’ve waited for the market to hit bottom (so two years ago) have a sense of urgency to make a good investment before the window of opportunity closes. With the release of pent up demand (sounds very “Fifty Shades of Grey”, doesn’t it?) sellers who’ve waited out the storm have built back some lost equity and are feeling more confident their home will fetch a fair and decent price. There are more bidding wars and high-demand neighborhoods than I’ve seen in five or six years and that feels good. The crush of summer housing sales gives way to autumn when the market slows a bit, leaving the serious buyers and sellers. Its a very efficient time for me as a real estate agent, often producing my best quarter.
I know home ownership is not for everyone, nor is real estate investing, but when you’re in an historical sweet spot to buy and hold real estate, it may be time to make a decision before you turn into a pumpkin. As for that voting thing… oh, I’m not goin’ there.

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Tracy Shaffer
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Labor Day and How Things are Born

We all know how babies are made, yet there is a different kind of co-mingling and sufficient collective labor that really useful things are born. Remember the commercial with the jingle “Look for the Union Label”? *cue sappy music* Feels like a such long time ago, when the American worker was protected by strong unions and lauded for a job well done. Everything has changed; manufacturing, the job market, the way we view organized labor and how we treat our workers. Our teachers and government employees have become the enemies as time sweeps them up in a political sentiment of smaller government. This is no longer the world of FDR, JFK and LBJ, whose visions of a Great Society have been ground to pieces in the profit mill.
The spirit of the American worker has been stripped down, diminished by outsourcing, plant closures and the low-lying message that we are replaceable in a world of Corporate profits, soaring CEO salaries and raided retirement funds. What has not changed is our ability to create and it is the creative spirit that wins every time. I remember the moment when I realized that outside of nature, everything I understood as the world around me was imagined, invented, engineered and build by someone. I was ten and awed by the notion. The dreamer, the doer, the builder, the sower, the seller, some toiling alone in the dark of night, others gathered in a field at the break of dawn– by the sweat of our brow and the wings of desire… Inventor, financier, laborer, public servant, hand-in-hand… We built that. *Music swells*
On this holiday weekend as you take respite, remember those who came before, who toil today and those who search for work in this difficult economy. Give thanks to the laborer who dug the ditch, laid the pipe, cut the trail, built the roads, the railroads, the bridges, stitched your clothing from the weaver’s fabric, assembled your car, your iPhone, your laptop. Take a moment to appreciate the teachers who taught you and the postman who carried the news of your college acceptance. Hug a tree in gratitude for the deck where you’re slaving over the BBQ grill, for those who brewed your beer and stuffed your sausage— all of these people have lead you to where you are in this moment and where you’ll be in the future. Stuck in traffic on the Eisenhower Tunnel. Happy Labor Day everyone!

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Tracy Shaffer
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How Affordable is Denver Home Ownership? Glad you asked.

“I See What You Mean” (Big Blue Bear) created by Lawrence Argent, photograph by Elizabeth Thomsen
You may be surprised to know that in the Denver metro area, The Home Affordability Index (HAI) is at its highest recording ever. What does that mean? The HAI compares the median price of a home in the Metro Denver real estate market to the median income level, and brings the current interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan into the equation. As a home buyer this is good news as the median income earner can buy more house today than ever before. Why? Because home prices, while rising quickly, are still well below their peak prices of 5-6 years ago and interest rates are at never-before-seen historic lows. It is the interest rates that continue to make homes so wonderfully affordable, so let’s dig into those a bit.
The typical rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage tumbled below 3.5% for the first time last week, the latest record low in a trend that has fired up homes sales around the country. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of what lenders are offering to qualified borrowers showed the 30-year rate at an average of 3.49%, down from 3.53% the week before. The 15-year fixed loan fell from 2.83% to an almost unbelievable 2.8%! Let’s put this in perspective. In late July 2010 and 2011 the typical 30-year rate in the Freddie Mac survey was just over 4.5%, more than a percentage point higher than now. The 30-year rate was above 6% in 2006 and most of 2007, over 8% back in 2000, and over 10% in 1990. Back in the bad old days of inflation, the rate topped 18% in 1981. Look at how the interest payments affect your monthly Principle and Interest payments:
$200,000 property in 1981 at 18% interest: $3,014
$200,000 property in 1990 at 10% interest: $1,755
$200,000 property in 2000 at 8% interest: $1,467
$200,000 property in 2007 at 6.5% interest: $1,264
$200,000 property in 2011 at4.5% interest: $1,013
$200,000 property in 2012 at 3.5% interest: $898
But wait, there’s more! According to a recent CNN Money article the average cost of closing on a mortgage has fallen by 7.4% over the past year. At the end of June, a homebuyer looking to close on a $200,000 mortgage with 20% down paid an average of $300 less than 12 months earlier. Even if you don’t have 20% down payment saved, you can put 3.5% on an FHA mortgage. Very attractive, no?
No one knows how long these historically low rates can last. But in the meantime my clients are taking advantage of them to buy the homes of their dreams and lock in once-in-a-lifetime interest rates.

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Tracy Shaffer
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The Stats Behind the Real Estate Recovery

Nothing happens overnight. After years of struggling with the housing crisis and millions of Americans struggling to stay in their homes, it looks as though we are finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. I live and work in Denver so this is the market of my expertise. With boots on the ground here, I’ve seen signs of the housing recovery for the past six months and it just keeps getting better. The Denver real estate market keeps trending upward and the following article from Canyon Title gives you some of the nuts and bolts reasons why that is so.

According to Reis Analytics, expansion and growth continue in the Denver Metro Area. While the recession did not bite as deeply into Denver as into other high-growth economies, the losses inemployment were substantial. But with job creation running positive for about the past two years, a substantial portion of the overall loss has been redeemed. According to preliminary data for April 2012, provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), non-farm employment was up 2.0% (24,100 jobs) from 12 months prior and was up 3.8% (45,300 jobs) over 24 months.

Additionally, “Metro Denver is repeatedly recognized as a bright spot in the national economy, thanks to our diverse array of high-tech businesses, relatively low cost of doing business, active and highly educated population, and ability to attract and retain a young and vibrant workforce,” said Patty Silverstein, the Metro Denver EDC’s (Economic Development Corporation) chief economist. “Forbes recently ranked Denver fifth on its 2012 list of the ‘Best Places for Business and Careers’ and Colorado ranked eighth on the Enterprising States report list of states expected to grow and prosper in the coming years. Across the nation, others are taking note of the slow and steady-but promising-momentum in Metro Denver.”

If you, or someone you know, is interested in learning more about how TODAY’S real estate market relates to you, please shoot me an email, sign up for the newsletter or give me a call. I’d be glad to go over your options and serve your best interests.

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